Burb Rocking
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
  Thin men: Lieberman...or Lamont?

On this day of voting in what may be the most closely watched primary in the history of the United States...a poem:

One Way of Looking at the Unseating of an Incumbent

O thin men of Connecticut,
Why do you imagine golden geese?
Do you not see how the F-117A Nighthawks and IEDs
Leave questions and body-bags
At the feet of the citizens about you?

With apologies to Wallace Stevens, of course, whose poem I have just cannibalized.

In a few hours the results will be in. And the New England tempest in the nation's political teapot will pass?

Now, for those few who haven't been paying close attention to this hot race for the Democratic spot in the Connecticut senate race, this from the National Ledger:

John Zogby Predicts Easy Win for Ned Lamont over Joe Lieberman by Jim Roberts

Aug 8, 2006

In a post on Taegan Goddard's Political Wire Zogby writes:

Joe Lieberman will probably go down in defeat by a substantial margin on Tuesday. While some bloggers have listed multiple reasons for the loss in confidence among Connecticut voters, it is all about Iraq.

This election cycle is all about Iraq. 2004 was all about Iraq and the Democrats were afraid to take a stand less they appear to flip-flip on a war they supported. But this time around, the statistics are staggering: only 16% of Democrats and 26% of Independents think the war has been worth the loss in American lives. Lieberman's dogged support for the Bush war policy has isolated him from rank and file voters.

Jim Roberts goes on to slam Zogby on his last big election eve prediction, when he called the 2004 election for Kerry. (My opinion: Without the outrageous disregard for democracy demonstrated in a certain Midwestern battleground state - not to mention Florida (again) - Bush had no chance at all; Zogby was right.) He concedes the point in this case, however, writing: "[Zogby's] prediction may be spot on in this case, (I can't imagine Lieberman pulling off this primary) but his Kerry prediction was so ill-timed and so absolutely wrong he has lost my confidence as an independent pollster."

A media circus is in full swing in Hartford at this very moment. National and international media have shown up in force. The media sees the final round of a fistfight on the order of the one featured at the end of The Quiet Man. The media sees that because it wants to see that and people will pay to watch it. Will it be a knock-out? Nobody knows, of course. But if I were to place a bet on anyone's predictions, my money would be on John Zogby. He was right last time - Americans did elect John Kerry in 2004, just as they elected Al Gore in 2000 - and he will be right again tonight.

If Connecticut can manage to pull off a more or less honest primary vote, Ned Lamont will be the next man to run on the Democratic ticket for the senate.

And Connecticut can avoid changing its name to Ohio. It already has enough to apologize for.

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